Fantasy basketball experts have already identified several preseason assumptions that the first week of the NBA season is challenging. The group, which includes Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Steve Alexander, Jim McCormick and Michael F. Florio, pointed to changes in playing time, production and roles that were not clear before the season began.
Tyrese Maxey, other 76ers thriving despite Philadelphia’s star power
Moody said the concern in Philadelphia was that too many stars would eat into Tyrese Maxey‘s production. LeBron James and Jaylen Brown joined Joel Embiid, but Maxey averaged 50 fantasy points per game through four games as the Sixers opened 3-1. Brown contributed 36.0 fantasy points per game, and Embiid recorded a 28-point triple-double against the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday. Moody noted that some nights will see someone sacrifice touches, but Maxey has not looked like the player making that sacrifice.
Florio agreed that the three stars have performed extremely well, especially in roto formats, even though LeBron and Embiid have already missed a game. Maxey is a top-five player in all formats, while Embiid and Brown are each averaging more than 20 points per game. LeBron continues to contribute across the board. Florio said it is still early, but fading them in fantasy is one early-season regret.
Giannis’ arrival is already affecting Adebayo’s production
Karabell admitted he had not considered the potential statistical downside of Giannis Antetokounmpo joining the Miami Heat for longtime underrated star Bam Adebayo. So far, Karabell said, the fit looks awkward. Adebayo averaged 20.1 points and 10 rebounds per game last season, continuing a seven-season run of excellence. He is off to a rough start, averaging 11.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 40% from the field and 61.5% from the free-throw line, and Miami is winless. Karabell said these numbers must improve, but he questioned how much and whether Adebayo remains a top-50 fantasy option.
Alex Sarr will have to wait to reach new heights
Snellings believes Alex Sarr is unlikely to approach, let alone build on, his breakout campaign from last season, assuming the Washington Wizards are fully healthy. Sarr averaged 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game last season. This year, he is averaging 8.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. With Anthony Davis occupying the spaces Sarr prefers at much higher volume, Sarr is getting fewer shots (6.5 field-goal attempts this season, down from 13.7 last year), along with fewer rebounding and shot-blocking chances. Snellings added that No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa has not yet played this season, and once he joins the lineup, Sarr may see even fewer looks.
Jabari Smith Jr. is showing signs of another leap
McCormick said he had believed Jabari Smith Jr. had plateaued as an NBA contributor. He noted that Smith was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft, with a prospect profile that hinted at special 3-and-D potential. McCormick said Smith’s defense has been impressive and improving throughout, while his offense appeared stagnant in recent seasons. With a real spike in 3-point volume this season, Smith’s growth as a multi-level scorer is a key factor in Houston’s potential to enter the contending class. McCormick considers Smith a solid fantasy target because this ascent appears sustainable.
Nikola Vucevic’s fantasy role is shrinking
Snellings believes the consistent fantasy production of Nikola Vucevic appears to be over. Vucevic rejoined the Orlando Magic this offseason, and the expectation was that he would battle Wendell Carter Jr. for minutes and production at center. Instead, Carter is averaging 30.7 minutes per game, while Vucevic is averaging 8.0. Carter is off to a great start, arguably the best of his career. Snellings also noted that Carter, at age 27, fits the career arc of the Magic’s other young core players, including Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane, much better than the 36-year-old Vucevic. Barring injury, Snellings said, it is hard to imagine Vucevic’s role expanding into fantasy relevance this season.
Early injuries are already testing fantasy managers
Alexander said he entered the season fully aware of how often NBA players deal with injuries and miss games, but he was not prepared for what he saw in Week 1. Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Cason Wallace, Lauri Markkanen, Kristaps Porzingis, Kon Knueppel, Ivica Zubac and Yves Missi are all out with major injuries, and some may not play again this season. Alexander said fantasy managers will have to make tough drop-or-hold decisions going forward, with 24 weeks still remaining.