The Denver Nuggets face an uncomfortable question to open the 2026-27 season: who are they if Nikola Jokic isn’t consistently playing at an MVP level? Through seven games, the Nuggets have looked like a mediocre team still searching for its first statement win over top-quality competition, and Jokic’s slow start has made that question impossible to ignore.
For most of the past decade, Denver’s championship hopes have depended on the franchise’s ability to build enough talent around Jokic. That search has produced memorable moments, including Jamal Murray’s evolution into a bona fide sidekick, the franchise-changing trade for Aaron Gordon in 2021, and the emergence of Christian Braun and Bruce Brown during the 2023 title run. Since that championship, the capped-out Nuggets have slowly lost talent and have failed to reach the conference finals in the past three seasons.
The focus on Denver’s supporting cast has grown out of Jokic’s dependability. The Serbian center has been the NBA’s most consistent star of the 2020s, finishing first or second in Most Valuable Player voting for six straight seasons and ranking first in Player Efficiency Rating for six straight seasons. He has also carried Denver to eight straight playoff appearances and four straight 50-win campaigns.
Jokic appeared poised to extend that run. He is still just 31 years old and was coming off a season in which he averaged a triple-double and captained the NBA’s most efficient offense. In September, he claimed the top spot on NBA Rank, an annual projection of the league’s top 100 players, and he told reporters he plans to sign a contract extension with the Nuggets next summer. When he threw an audacious behind-the-back, cross-court pass to Cameron Johnson for a corner 3-pointer during an October preseason game, it was tempting to believe in Denver’s chances and forget about the demoralizing first-round exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves in April.
There was no obvious reason to expect Jokic’s level of play to drop, but he has struggled at times to meet his own standard during the first two weeks of the regular season. If that trend continues, Denver will face an existential crisis.
Why This Isn’t the Same Jokic
Small sample size caveats apply, but Jokic has clearly started slowly. Through seven games, he is shooting 50.4% from the field, his worst mark since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9% from deep. His 26.1 Player Efficiency Rating is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, and his 23.4 points per game is his lowest output since 2019-20.
The underlying numbers raise more concern. Jokic’s average shot distance is 12 feet, tied for the longest of his career, because just 16% of his shots have come from the basket area, a career low. Meanwhile, 25% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, nearly a career high. His free throw and offensive rebound rates have also dropped sharply from last season and are trending toward career lows.
Jokic remains the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, but his efficiency and forcefulness lag well behind his box score production. He ranks sixth in the league in PER and 15th in win shares, after ranking first and second in those metrics last season.
A dominant Jokic did lead Denver to a blowout win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, but he has not sustained that level of impact on winning or command of the paint from one night to the next. As a result, the Nuggets’ offense has not looked like the juggernaut fans have come to expect. In the Raptors game, Jokic posted 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, which offered hope that he is simply pacing himself for a long season and that his poor outside shooting is a short-term slump.
Nuggets coach David Adelman expressed confidence this week that Jokic’s play will improve with time. “Some of the shots we’re so accustomed to seeing that [Jokic] never misses, whether it’s a jump hook or a 15-footer, all those kinds of things, they’re coming,” Adelman said after Monday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Adelman added, “This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that’s ever lived. I’ll die on that sword.”
Why These Aren’t the Same Nuggets
Denver’s top-heavy roster was not built to compensate for any slippage from Jokic. The Nuggets are 4-3 to start the season, including an 0-3 mark against teams with winning records, and they have already heard boos from their home crowd at Ball Arena. After Denver’s overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans in the home opener, Jokic said, “I think those fans who booed us … they’re not welcome anymore.”
Jokic’s struggles have also exposed the flaws around him. Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season with injury. Johnson continues to underperform. A new-look second unit headlined by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored on a regular basis.
Jokic’s drift away from the basket has created another problem. Before their blowout of the Raptors, the Nuggets ranked 26th in points in the paint. That is a serious concern because Denver also ranks 28th in 3-point attempts per game. Adelman says he will keep making a “concerted effort” to establish Jokic in the post, and he is encouraging his role players to “get up more 3s.”
Denver’s longstanding formula, an elite offense compensating for a so-so defense, also looks shaky. Despite a strong start from Murray, the Nuggets’ offense ranks 11th entering Thursday. They have not ranked outside the top 10 since Jokic was a rookie.
“It’s too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray],” Adelman said Monday. “I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves.”
Adelman’s job requires him to keep faith in his role players, but he is working with a largely untested bench. Rookie forward Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise. However, budget-friendly backups Marvin Bagley III, Bryce Hopkins, Alpha Diallo and Cam Whitmore have combined for only a handful of playoff appearances. Offseason additions DeRozan and Tyus Jones are both several years removed from any meaningful postseason impact.
The new faces also highlight how few key figures remain from the 2023 championship team. Denver fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone less than two years after winning the title. Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and seldom-used big man Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 roster.
Denver tried to replace Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson with cheaper alternatives, since Jokic, Murray and Gordon all hold significant contracts. Those efforts have largely failed. The Nuggets’ recent draft history has also featured more misses than hits. Rather than adding waves of young talent to support Jokic, Denver has settled for a new batch of free agent fliers every summer. Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson have all moved in and out of Denver in recent years with little impact.
The result is predictable. Denver’s bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating. That is a significant burden for Jokic to overcome, even if he recaptures his top form.
Why Denver Lacks Real Options
Denver’s cap situation will not ease anytime soon. If Jokic signs an extension next summer, worth up to $360 million over five years, he will join Murray and Gordon on the long-term books. Both are under contract through 2028-29. Braun’s five-year, $125 million extension, which just took effect this season, adds further strain to the Nuggets’ finances.
That limits Denver’s trade options. The Nuggets would struggle to get value in trades involving Gordon or Braun given their salaries, and they cannot afford to part with Murray given his strong play and track record. None of Denver’s younger players have played well enough to generate a significant return.
More importantly, if Jokic’s impact continues to lag, the Nuggets will need to consider negotiating rather than simply handing him a maximum extension with a record average annual value of $72 million.
A five-year extension next summer would carry Jokic through his age-36 season, and no recent center playing at an MVP level has done so that late in his career. Tim Duncan led a balanced San Antonio Spurs team to the 2014 championship at age 37, but he earned only $10.4 million on a team-friendly discount, a fraction of the maximum salary available to him.
Jokic’s slow start has made clear that Denver lacks a succession plan if its franchise center faces meaningful age-related decline or a significant injury. These Nuggets were constructed to support Jokic as best they could, under the assumption that he would once again handle the heavy lifting. No rising superstar is waiting to take the baton, and Denver has already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.
Something will have to give. There is no plausible path for Denver to re-sign Jokic to an enormous extension, improve his supporting cast and avoid the NBA’s second apron penalties. The Milwaukee Bucks faced a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer and chose to trade him to the Miami Heat and pursue a full rebuild.
So far, Jokic has resisted pressure to overhaul the roster and has given no indication that he wants to leave Denver. Superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Antetokounmpo have changed teams in recent years in pursuit of better championship odds, but Jokic could follow the Dirk Nowitzki model instead. Nowitzki led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 title, then spent eight more seasons with the franchise even though he never won another playoff series.
Like Dallas with Nowitzki, Denver has plenty of reasons to reward Jokic’s loyalty as he ages. But this season has offered a glimpse of the organization’s uncertain future. Jokic can only mask the Nuggets’ problems when he is playing at an MVP level. When he is not, Denver’s entire plan starts to unravel.